Online sleuths have tried to uncover who placed a winning bet on the Venezuelan leader's arrest to no avail. Still, prediction market watchers say the bet appears suspicious.

Polymarket has not paid out wagers that predicted the U.S. would invade Venezuela—drawing angry reactions from some bettors—as the online betting platform suggested that the raid to capture Maduro did not qualify as an invasion and the resolution of the bet would require the U.S. establishing direct control of the country’s territory.