A Chinese takeover of Taiwan would make the threat to Japanese territory more acute, said Yuki Tatsumi, senior director at the U.S.-based Institute for Indo-Pacific Security. “Japan will no longer have a buffer, if you will,” she said, adding that it would face direct pressure from the Chinese navy.

They’re at it again. China and Japan are frenemies, trading partners and uneasy neighbors with a tortured and bloody history they’re still working through.

China and Japan are bound together by trade and geography, but a long history of rivalry and unresolved disputes makes even periods of cooperation fragile.

China’s access to Japan’s coveted industrial-use goods – especially a critical chipmaking ingredient – may face hurdles if Tokyo imposes export restrictions in the event of a prolonged political dispute,

Tensions between Tokyo and Beijing remain high after Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi expressed support for Taiwan in November 2025. Social media posts shared fabricated images of signboards at Japan's Narita International Airport that appear to direct travellers from "Taiwan" and "China" to separate lanes for immigration clearance,

Seki studied philosophy at Peking University before moving to Japan in 1988, where he attended graduate school at Kobe University, earning a doctorate in cultural studies. Later, he was a university lecturer, political commentator and author of Japanese-language books, including one on “why I abandoned China.”

The measures target only our country and deviate significantly from international practice,” Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara reportedly said. “We intend to carefully examine and analyse the details and consider necessary responses.

In December the US announced its largest-ever arms sale to Taiwan, totalling £8.2bn, which included Himars rocket systems, Javelin anti-tank missiles and howitzers. However, these will probably take years to be delivered.