If enough of you shout about the same topic, we’ll turn it into a full deep dive in 2026. Rational optimism is believing the ...

I wanted to reach out at this time of year and tell you how grateful I am for you being both reader and friend.

“…what I learned is whatever successes I had in life had to do more with how I dealt with what I didn’t know than what I know… “…the reason I did that ...

Debt is a curse that can also be a blessing, depending on how the borrower uses it. Sadly, human nature seemingly ensures we often use debt unproductively—and not just as individuals. Governments have ...

Financial market news has seemingly become all tariffs, all the time. The president’s plan, whatever it is, seems to spring from his belief that trade deficits are bad and must be eliminated. Tariffs ...

Today we continue our study of the historical cycles suggesting a major crisis is in our near-term (5‒8 years) future. We don’t know the precise timing or nature of the crisis, but the patterns ...

Anyone else ready for the election to be over? This uncertainty is exhausting, no matter how you want it to end. But sadly, it won’t really end. We will just transition to a different uncertainty over ...

If you are an investor, an economist, or really anyone who watches big trends, numbers are your friends. They help you understand events you can’t personally observe. If you are an investor, an ...

You know I’m highly concerned about government debt in the developed world, particularly the US. I’ve said for years a crisis is coming. We’ve blown right past all our chances to avoid it. Now all we ...

Everywhere I go, people ask me what’s next for the economy. My answer depends on what they mean by “next.” Anything can happen next month. I’m much more confident about what we’ll see over the next ...

Today we continue reviewing Ray Dalio’s latest book, How Countries Go Broke. If, like me, you fear that you may soon live in such a country, Ray’s work reads like a guidebook to the future. But in ...

We like to say markets don’t lie. That may be so, but they can certainly send mixed signals. It happened last week when President Trump announced tariff rates on several important trade partners not ...